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5am Update - Tropical Cyclone Development

Published: 10-06-2026 | Category: General

Here is an update concerning the potential for tropical cyclone development in the southwest Gulf over the next few days.

Changes from previous update:  

  • The chance of development over the next 2 days has increased.

Overview:

There is a HIGH (80%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days.  

  • This system is forecast to move generally eastward and then northward and could bring some impacts to the northern Gulf coast in the next 4 to 6 days (generally Friday through Sunday).

  • Interests along the northern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system.

Confidence:

  • Confidence in the development of a tropical depression or storm in the southwest Gulf over the next 2 days continues to increase.

  • Confidence is gradually increasing that this system will bring impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but extent and timing of impacts to the local area remain uncertain.

Impacts:

  • Specific impacts will depend on the exact track and intensity of this system. However, there is a chance it will bring a multi-hazard threat to the local area in 4 to 6 days (generally Friday through Sunday). More details will be provided as forecast confidence increases.